August Window Will Be a Major Inflection Point for Crypto

This is something I have been public about for some time but today I want to reaffirm the evidence that the August 6-12 time frame could bring about a very significant change in trend and sentiment for BTC and the broader crypto market.

I first warned about this time frame months ago in my video outlook you can find here.

Today, I am going to show you all the evidence building around this date based on time ranges, price ranges, and time by degrees. I think you will see there is a substantial probability of some major event or news story breaking in this window.

We will start with the monthly time frame and go all the way down to the daily to demonstrate the confluence we are seeing.

The monthly chart is something we highlighted last week but to further add to the proof that we are in the same cycle we added the months from previous tops as well. As you can see the previous two cycles are nearly identical to the current cycle. Both 33 months from the major high and 20 months from the major low put us right in this time period from July to September for a final low before the big move up.

Now we know time is on our side but a lot of people have been saying this cycle is different due to the price going to all time highs so fast but let’s compare that on a monthly time frame to previous cycles.

The evidence is pretty shocking. As you can see in each of the previous two cycle (with the exception of 2012) price moved up just over 200% from the bear market low to exactly this time period we are in. As you can see this time is not different. Both time and price are in fact exactly where they should be and neither is overextended as the talking heads would like you to think.

Moving onto the weekly there’s more to cover. First, looking at how we have had a major change in trend every 30 weeks this cycle. But here’s the interesting thing, notice how the 30 weeks is falling right between what is basically a major low and major high at the same time. I’ll get to why that may be when we look at the next few charts but for now the next 30 week window slates us for that week of August 12. These three 30 week periods combine to give us the 90 weeks in total from the bear market low.

Additionally, zooming out a bit more on the weekly. I noticed from the 2017 top the first major top in 2021 was 174 weeks. August 12 will put us 174 weeks from that April 2021 top which was no doubt a significant one. So we are approaching an equal time period from two major inflection points, the 2017 top and the 2021 April top.

Now, as our evidence suggests this is a different stage of the market and it’s more likely in my view that the inflection point should be in the form of a major low and not a major high. But as I have been saying during these cycle we tend to see what is actually both a major high and low simultaneously around this window.

Shown in the charts below is this exact period in each cycle and then this time last year of this cycle. As you can see there is almost always a sharp run up and then a flash dip in August that can be to the tune of 20-50%. Last year was not the same as the other three images because it was only in year two of the cycle but it demonstrates the seasonality of this type of move happening around August.

It also shows what we have seen in this cycles weekly patterns around the 30 week inflection points with the market making a significant high and low in a relatively tight window.

Now let’s look at it from a time by degrees perspective. Time by degrees in short is measuring 30 calendar days from a significant high or low and looking for a change in trend. You simply start with 30 and add up 30,60,90,120,150,180 etc. and use these to look for changes in trend. The more you get in a close bunch the higher the likely hood is that that day or week will be important.

As you can see by the chart below all of these time measurements fall in a time by degrees window. We have several major highs and lows within this cycle that all point to that second week of August being a period of major confluence.

Lastly, from a time range perspective this market has been respecting 150 day ranges for the entirety of this cycle so far. 155 days up and 150 days of consolidation. Important, to note that we should not see an overbalance of time here. Meaning, the market should not run down more days than it runs up. In a bull market the market goes up for longer periods of time than it goes down as you can see demonstrated by the chart below. If it were to exceed the previous run down of 150 days and make a new low that would not be a good sign of what’s to come.

Finally, putting it all together you can see from the price ranges, time ranges, time by degrees, and a seasonality perspective we are approaching what will very likely be some sort of trigger moment for BTC in the mid August window. If that’s not enough evidence for you then note that the inception of the BTC chart started on August 19th. I won’t get too deep in the weeds on that but birth dates are important and August just happens to be the month that typically triggers the start of the major bull rally.

These are the reasons I am maintaining some caution here and waiting for that window to pass before getting more aggressive. Could it be that we see the ETH ETF finally start trading and then we get a quick dump like we did on the BTC ETF? Or maybe we see some more political headlines come out putting uncertainty into the election. I’m not exactly sure what it will be but this is definitely a window to watch and have some patience into.