Bullish June Ahead: Navigating the Market's Next Big Rally
As we enter the halfway point of 2024 the outlook remains very bullish. May was a bit of a tough month to navigate between the sell in May crowd and the bulls pushing the market up. However, we managed it quite well.
Looking ahead into June, we have a presidential election on the horizon which the market historically likes to rally into. We also saw $200 billion in stock buybacks announced in May which was the most ever. And people love to travel and spend money during the summer months more so than at any other time. And this year they are doing it at a higher rate than ever before.
So the overall economy and stock market certainly seem set to continue over the next few months with little hiccups.
As for the actual price action, we knew there would be a substantial summer rally but the question was when?
We pointed to the second half of May for a low to buy in crypto. That came on the 14th with the surprise ETH ETF.
For the stock market, it did not quite give us a low to buy that we wanted in late May. But given the cycles we were studying and the market action we were right to be cautious into that time window.
Looking at the weekly and daily SPY chart here.
on the weekly you can see a strong wick off of the blue level which was a major support zone from the 2021 all time high. It was also able to wick back up and close above the orange 1/1 line. A sign of strength.
On the daily we have a huge reversal signal candle put in on Friday. Not much else to note here other than that. We had been calling late May for a low and it looks like we got it. Not as low a we wanted but we take what the market gives us.
Above is one more look at the 60 year cycle compared with the DOW recent price action. The highlighted section is the period we are entering right now. Which would mean a very sharp rally into August from here. Also look at the price action before the highlighted zone. It’s very similar to what the DOW just did.
So could we see a huge summer rally unfolding starting now? I think so.
If we look at crypto we see the same setup. Here I have the monthly, weekly and daily setup.
Since we just close the monthly candle I wanted to point out that it is quite bullish. Came down lower, wicked up, and closed well into the green.
On the weekly time frame you can still see where we are trying to take out that red line for a closing high. Historically BTC has made new highs in this summer run so I would expect us to see new all time highs on btc this month.
On the daily time frame you should know the dates I have been talking about now. This month, I have the 9-12 as the first big window and the next window will be around June 22 which is a natural date. Of course it just happens that CPI will come out on June 12 so watch for that one.
Until then this market looks bullish to me. Higher highs and higher lows. We have a strong trending market right now. Don’t go against it.
As for ETH
I’m just showing you the monthly candle here because it is a sight to behold. A full bullish engulfing candle. Not much else to say other than this is a very bullish high time frame setup. I expect big outperformance in June and July from ETH here.
At the same time ETH/BTC is getting resistance and BTC.D is holding on which I warned you about last week. So seeing a little correction here on ETH/BTC should have been expected. I don’t expect it to last too long.
Overall, we are in a strong bull market. The dips we have been forecasting are for buying. We got the lows we talked about in the second half of May, they just weren’t as substantial of buying opportunities as we had hoped for. Thats okay, for crypto we have been positioned in the best ETH beta possible and that is paying off big time. In stocks, Friday looks to have been the reversal you want to see. I remain aggressive in this market leading up to the 12th.