Post-Crash Outlook: Is the Worst Behind Us for Crypto and Stocks?

Coming off of a volatile week the market is looking to this week for more signs from the inflation numbers on Wednesday and jobs numbers at the end of the week.

Although, we may see bit of a grind for the next few weeks I do believe the worst is behind us. As I said in our Friday market wrap, it’s very hard to see a scenario where we make a new low in the crypto market and still maintain a healthy macro uptrend.

Stocks on the other hand still have a bit of work to do to prove that a low has been made. As always we will let price action be our guide.

Keeping it simple again and using the 60 year cycle on the right, we may see a bit of a rollover in prices into the end of the month. The August 13th date was a Thursday in our 60 year cycle which coincides with jobs numbers that will come out this week following a CPI number on Wednesday. It also aligns closely with our time by degrees of 120 from the yearly low.

Additionally, if you look at the RSI on these charts the setup is nearly identical. So, that is what I will be watching for with stocks this week. The last important thing to note is that we have not yet had three consecutive green days which would be one of our important signals that the market is back on strong footing. Notice on the right in the 60 year cycle the market bounced into the 13 but did not ever have three consecutive green days before rolling over again into the end of the month.

Turning our focus to crypto let’s look at BTC price action

We got a very strong bounce off the 50% level and finished the week with a close above the blue line which is a weekly swing low we wanted to hold. All good signs for us to confirm a low last week. Notice the candle’s I have pointed out here they are all signal candles alerting us to a reversal taking place and last week’s was no different.

However, if we look at the daily chart above it tells us the same story as what we saw in the stock market and that is, we have yet to see a three day reversal. So on the higher time frame the market is strong which is a good sign but on the lower daily time frame we have not had an over balance of time yet, meaning we may still have some choppiness to sort out in the next few weeks.

Lastly, if we look at back at the flash dips in previous cycles that came right in our August time window we will see that although prices did not make a new low we also didn’t take off right away.

So even though the lows are most likely in, be prepared for a bit of a grinding market that may last well into September.

The good news is, the worst is likely behind us. It was a tough a week but the market showed a lot of strength with the weekly candle close and it held up all important levels that I wanted to see BTC maintain. Going forward, we should see Alts start to take the spotlight in the second half of this cycle while the market finds its footing after what was essentially a cycle reset.

As for stocks, the jury is still out to see what happens in that second half of this month with some important seasonal factors and cycle times pointing to a big inflection point I would be patient and see how the data reflects this week and watch for that potential double bottom setup.