The Key Date That Could Mark the Bottom
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Quick update this week as price action remains in line with last week's outlook. No major shifts yet, but that’s about to change.
Next week, I’ll be diving deeper into the broader cycle and timing dynamics, but today, we focus on the short-term—key catalysts, our next major date, and what’s setting up beneath the surface.
More importantly, for Founding Members, we’re refining our tactical trading strategy for 2025. With volatility ahead, precision will be everything. This is a coin picker’s market, and that means tightening our focus, cutting dead weight, and positioning with intent. Expect portfolio adjustments soon—be ready.
First looking at BTC this week
It’s still following my plan which is that we will see a bottoming range form over the next few weeks so patience is key. I have a very high level of interest around the 72k level especially if we get that price on our next key date which is that last week of March and first week of April.
That date, April 3rd is 120 degrees from the high in December and 240 degrees from the August 5th low. So we have Low> High > Low? in our major 120 degree cycle potentially.
72k is the major area of interest and an area that I would definitely want to see hold. It has a lot going on it for the square of 144, a critical square out that we have been highlighting all cycle. In other words if we see 72k on that week time and price would be coming together and I would get aggressive.
As for short term you can see the market is still not strong. It has yet to put in a 3 day reversal and just yesterday the daily candle took out the swing low of the previous day.
REMEMBER: in a strong trending market we can expect no more than 2 day reversals and the high (or low if its going down) of the previous day should be taken out. We have yet to see that at work in BTC so caution remains warranted.
As for ETH
It’s a similar story. I don’t trust this move yet. No three day reversal and no continuation of the highs being taken out.
That said I have a few new charts I’m working on and the bottom line all my data tells me that this red box level in ETH must hold. If not we will be looking at a further move to around 1300 and likely a longer bearish phase in the market.
Conclusion
Remain patient here. We have had some relief in the last week on Alts but I am looking to get rid of losers on this bounce and reposition with more focus so everyone can capitalize on a rally. This will all be part of a trading plan for what I see as a very bullish window emerging over the summer but more on that next week.
I see us as not confirmed on a bottom yet but I would bet that the week of April 3rd is going to be the key low to get aggressive on. Remember a year ago when we had the key double top on April 8th. I would be looking for something similar here as a double bottom in the market around 72k for BTC.
Then of course, our first sign will be an overbalance of time which we have yet to get. So again, I remain cautious.
We have a Fed meeting this week on the 19th, the vernal equinox on the 22nd and then a key window from the 29th to the third of April.
In other words, a lot of low time frame swings are possible here so don’t fomo and don’t panic and we will ultimately be ready to watch how that last week of March shapes up and it will be key.