There’s an interesting phrase from an ancient prophet that says, “in due season, your harvest, will come.” As we approach the Autumnal equinox on September 22nd this particular phrase becomes of extra importance. Growing up in a rural area surrounded by farmland I can tell you that seasons matter and cycles are in all aspects of life but in particular, when it comes to the harvest. If you know anything about farming, then you know the time to plant is in the spring, and the time to harvest is in the fall.
Now that may not seem all that important to you but understand that everything works in cycles and seasons and a change of seasons is as important to a market as it is to a farmers crop.
We will soon be entering a new season within the crypto market and with that a new trend is emerging. Last month we gave you the August low as THE low and then followed it up by telling you the most important date in September (September 5th), would mark a higher low. So far this has been the case.
However, once again, it’s time to look forward to what will likely be the most important date of the entire 4th quarter and what it will mean for this market going forward. The August date was huge, the September date was critical, but all of that seems to be of lesser importance to the date I am about to show you. In fact, this rare confluence we are seeing on this date has never happened in the history of Bitcoin.
In recent weeks we have put extra emphasis on the 360 degrees of the year and what it means for a full cycle. Similarly we have talked about the 180 degrees that makes up 1/2 of 360 or, in other words, the midpoint of 360.
These are both very important and powerful time factors and it is a rare occurrence to see them align in the way that they will next month. In fact, it has never happened in the history of Bitcoin due to its short price history. But, thats all about to change in a few weeks time.
On October 5th 2024 Bitcoin will hit its 15 year anniversary. 15 x 4 = 60 years which we know Gann called the master cycle. 15 x 12 (months in a year) = 180 months in 15 years.
So, for the first time in its history Bitcoin will be hitting a 180 month, 180 week, and 180 day time factor from major inflection points simultaneously. Not to mention the 180 month time factor coincides with the birth of the contract.
Safe to say this will be a big turning point and likely the exact date that kickstarts what we have all been waiting on for so long.
180 days
From the high of the year on April 8, (remember when studying Gann the year starts on March 21st at the spring equinox so technically the April high is the high of the year and you will see why that is important here.) October 5th will be exactly 180 degrees from that date on the daily time frame. Last year from the April 14th high of the year the market made a higher low exactly 180 degrees from that date. We were there and we traded it. I vividly remember sending an email out to subscribers within one hour of reading the headlines bashing crypto on the front page of the New York Times. It was the date of the Hamas attack inside Israel and the whole world was panicking. We were telling you to buy. The market made a higher low and the rest is history.
180 Weeks
The higher the time frame the more powerful the inflection point. Now we are on the weekly chart and you can see that the first top in 2021 came exactly 180 weeks from our upcoming time window in October. Again, this is signaling to us a very important date to watch. That date in 2021 was the Coinbase IPO. It was the event that marked the first top of the year. I would be very alert to some news coming out potentially around Coinbase or perhaps another crypto IPO (maybe Kraken?). If not watch for some other development potentially related to Israel and it’s ongoing conflict.
180 Months
Bitcoin’s 15th birthday is just around the corner and whether you like it or not birth dates are important. A topic maybe for another day but in short the day a contract is formed or first traded on an exchange is vital to know when trading an asset. You will see it behave in a certain way around these dates as we are about to illustrate in the next image.
October Seasonality
Again, the reason for this is a little bit beyond my current scope of comprehension but I can’t make this up. Bitcoin consistently begins a very violent bull run at this critical October juncture right around its birthday. Roughly 150 weeks from the previous top and 95 weeks (give or take) from the bottom BTC stages a massive breakout to the upside. Only this time we have huge confluence of the 180 degree daily, weekly, and monthly time frames. Which, leads me to believe this may be even more significant than any previous cycle.
Whatever news comes out I do believe this will be THE low of Q4 and there will be a swift and violent bull run kicked off because of it. We have spent the last 5 months in a brutal grinding market and we never quit or threw in the towel on what our research was telling us. We have been planning this moment for nearly 6 months and we will reap our due harvest because of it.
Remember, it does not take a lot of time to make a lot of money, it just takes a long time to get ready for it. Things are about to get extremely chaotic, we will inevitably miss a lot of big winners, but stick to your plan, hold high conviction bets, don’t fight the trend, and don’t ever fomo. The actions you take in the next six to twelve months could make all the difference and I’ll be right in there with you every step of the way.
One more: wasn’t BTC launched in January? How come now is the anniversery?
Brilliant piece man! What RSI timeframe do you use? How many days?