What I'm Watching This Week and The Next Major Date

There isn’t much to update when the market is mind numbingly dull as it has been over the last few weeks.

It’s this kind of market that will drive a person mad and I think we are seeing that with the pure insanity of the LIBRA coin saga. It’s exactly what the market is designed to do.

It does its absolute best to get everyone who was in profit to trade away all their capital just before it makes a big move.

I know this first hand from taking my own muggings trying to force the market’s hand when the only thing to do is wait for it to come to you.

Any professional trader knows this all too well and will tell you its one of the hardest lessons to learn in a market. When there is nothing to do do nothing. Much easier said than done when you have a market full of people desperate to get rich quick. They will learn the inevitable lesson the hard way that you cannot force a market to move no more than a surfer could force a perfect wave to appear.

Once they are totally depleted of all their capital and demoralized the market can resume business as usual.

It’s not all bad though. The market continues to test the patience of even the most season veterans of this space. So this week I’m going to share some things I am looking for as signs of life.

First looking at ETH.

Just some observations of the current weekly chart and timing. First look at how 28 weeks from the BTC ETF the ETH ETF was launched and marked a significant weekly high. We have the same weekly time factor (28) from the ETH ETF to the current weekly low. So more evidence of at least the short term inflection point.

We are now 30 weeks from the ETH ETF which is why I would not be surprised to see some significant “news” announced around staking or something else. Today the 18th is the exact 210 degree pressure date and David Sacks the new crypto Czar has said news is imminent. Whether or not it is material to the price we will see as it seems nothing has been able to push this market up. But given the timing of it if anything should it would be the next bit of news.

The other thing to note about this weekly cycle has yet to close three weeks red in a row unlike BTC did last week which we will cover.

The most important chart is still the monthly at this point.

The red box is the 50% confluence level which you can see is still holding well and should be the accumulation zone. However, I believe this monthly absolutely has to recover above the black line preferrably and really it should close green.

In no other cycel has there been three months down without is being the top. As you can see we already violated that this cycle and given if we were to do it again in the face of what could be a double top I would not like the looks of it at all.

It’s not a tall task with 10 days to go in the month ETH can move the 20% gap in a day its possible but we want to see a strong monthly recovery above 3300 level.

This is historically one of the most bullish months for eth and as I said coming into the second half of this month time is really starting to run out so I would expect the move to begin soon.

First we need to start seeing an overbalance of time on the daily which we have yet to see even two green days in a row since the panic although it is just barely holding a key level.

As for BTC daily

It’s really just holding on by a thread here while it trades in this channel and traders get chopped to death.

The bad news is the weekly

Again its just sitting below key levels on my chart and it closed three red weeks in a row which we take as an overbalance of time and one of our first warning signals that the market is running down now longer than it is running up.

Historically, there is only one other occation this happened in a BTC bull market this late in the cycle and that was in March of 2017.

The market went red three straight weeks and then exploded to new highs.

So this is really a wait and see stage.

BTC made a higher high in January but still a lower closing high than in December. Yet at the same time is has yet to make a lower low. It’s just hanging there. So the only thing to do is wait and see if it takes out the highs its game on and the three weeks may be negated if it closes below the lows its going to be a bad look and may take a sharper dip.