Why December 2025 is ETH's Major Macro Moment

We’re focusing on Ethereum this month ahead of its major Fusaka fork upgrade, which aligns with key time catalysts suggesting a significant cycle turning point.

We did our last comprehensive analysis of Ethereum’s rally in July of this year. Although the correction that followed was more severe than we initially anticipated, our time cycle methodology once again demonstrated its reliability, with the market peak occurring during the first week of September as we had forecasted.

Today we are going to use that same analysis to look at the seasonality, time cycles, macro cycles, and other indicators to show why ETH is likely forming a bottom this month.

Starting with a high level monthly view of ETH cycles and then zooming into the current picture will show why the month of December likely holds a key reversal moment.

ETH Monthly Cycles

Beginning with this 40-42 month low to low cycle we can see that ETH has a tendency to put in major cycle lows roughly every 42 months in it’s short history.

The chart below shows the monthly closing lows to monthly closing lows happen right on this time factor.

The 42 month cycle is roughly 3.5 years which is important because that falls as the midpoint of a seven year cycle in Gann. The following excerpt is what Gann had to say about the 7 year cycle.

If we complete the 7 year panic cycle that puts us at 84 months this month or exactly in line with the 2018 bottom.

We can further look at this cycle by taking the all time low of the chart and measuring forward 84 months and you get the November 2022 which was the FTX collapse and undoubtedly a panic low in the market.

December As a High Probability Inflection Point

So we know we are in the realm of a strong 3.5 year to 7 year cycle inflection point going into this month. But to backtest that we want to look at how often the month of December has marked a major turn in this asset.

If we look at the chart below the arrows indicate every December since the inception of ETH in 2015. The green arrows show major bottoms, the red arrows major tops and the blue arrows indicate no major turn.

Its fair to say that 8 out of 10 years on this chart December has marked nearly the absolute top or absolute bottom in ETH.

Out of those 8 times 5 have signaled major lows while the other three were major highs.

Given the probability of a major turn next month and considering sentiment, price levels, and our monthly cycles, you would have to assume a major low is more likely the case.

Weekly Time Cycles

Next we have to consider the length of runs in the cycle. Anytime you address a market you have to know how long the moves tend to last both up and down. This is how we called for a top in ETH in the first week of September in our July 17th report.

This time we are going to look at the average weekly drawdowns this cycle starting from the 2021 top.

As you can see in the chart above there has been a strong confluence around 13-16 weeks for the average weekly correction to end.

We are now in that window.

Important Time Factors

Now that we see the macro cycles, the seasonality, and the length of the runs we can address the important time factors that turn all markets.

Starting with the very important 180 degree weekly cycle we can see how this time factor has consistently pinpointed major turns in the market this year from the 2021 top.

From the high in 2021 it was 180 weeks roughly to the April crash low.

The next major turn was the March 2022 high that preceded the crash. That was 180 weeks exactly from the September top.

And now as it currently stands we are at the next key turn which was not only a turn but a major bear market bottom.

We are 180 weeks from that.

The 180 degree time factor is of major importance as you can see the turns in the last year have coincided with every major turn from 180 weeks ago.

In fact, you can backtest it even further and see that the 2022 bottom came in at nearly 180 weeks exactly from the 2018 bottom.

We can even further break down this time factor into 90 week halves or ‘midpoints’ as Gann would call them.

In this case you will see that from the 2022 low to the high in March 2024 was exactly 90 weeks. This was unquestionably a major high and we are now 90 weeks exactly from that and completing this cycle.

If that is not enough confluence for you we can zoom into the daily cycle and see that the low last week in ETH fell exactly 90 days from the top.

These time cycles are of major importance and have helped us call nearly every major turn in this market months ahead of time.

This current setup is showing the wheel within the wheel where we have a 90 day cycle coinciding with a 90 degree weekly cycle falling within a larger 180 degree cycle.

Time is once again telling us that a major turn is happening right now in this market.

BTC.D and ETH/BTC

To further our evidence as to why I think a major macro inflection point is unfolding this month lets look at the correlation to bitcoin dominance and ETHs relationship to BTC.

Starting with BTC.D I see a similar story in time unfolding with a 60 month setup for a major high in this chart.

It’s been a tricky one this cycle but these major time factors have a way of playing out in all charts. Right now all we have to go off of is one cycle here which I don’t love but we have to take what we’ve got.

This one cycle so far shows a 60 month top to top move and next month once again falls on that 60 month mark from the December 2020 top.

We can then turn to ETH/BTC for more evidence of what we may be seeing and again I have marked every December in this chart dating back to its inception.

5 out of the 7 major turns in the month of December resulted in a low and many times December has market a significant monthly turn.

Additionally, below we can time the all important 60 month Gann cycles out on this chart and it shows confluence with the 60 month tops in BTC.D

Both cycles called a major low to low move with December being the month of reversal.

Price Levels

Now that we know a key turn is highly probably we have to look at price and sentiment to determine which direction we are headed.

I think most everyone reading this is aware that sentiment is still in extreme fear and general public interest is near an all time low.

But what is price telling us?

The first major indicator we can look at is 50% levels. In order for this market to maintain a bullish position we want to see the 50% level hold.

Depending on the time horizon you are looking at we may or may not have broken those levels in the short term.

However, what I am more interested in is whether or not the macro cycle levels are still in tact and indeed you can see they are when you look at the monthly chart.

In addition to that we are still making macro higher highs and lower lows which is a bullish structure.

Zooming in a bit more to the weekly its pretty clear we are sitting right above a major level that ETH has been fighting since early 2021 with RSI reaching a weekly buy signal on a bullish divergence. This is a setup for at minimum, a weekly to monthly bounce.

Lastly, I want to take a quick look at ETH and its relationship to Copper. Copper has had a very strong macro correlation with ETH and its currently breaking out to new all time highs.

If we look at the ETH/Copper weekly chart it is sitting just above the 2017 top which has acted as a strong floor since the 2022 bottom. We are also seeing that same weekly bullish RSI divergence in play with this key macro level.

Copper has been performing well but I would expect ETH to have a strong reaction and begin outperforming it in the intermediate term.

Wrapping Up

I believe it’s clear that we are at a major macro inflection point for ETH going into this month.

Between the major monthly cycles, ETHs corrective cycles, the December seasonality, and the important time factors everything suggest to me that we should see a reversal in ETH this month.

Now the caveat is that I don’t see a straight shot higher in December but rather the forming of a major low over 2-4 weeks that will ultimately lead us to a big move higher in late December to early January.

With the way BTC.D is shaping up and the overall macro risk on indicators I see, I believe this is the shift away from bitcoin and into alt coins happening that should continue on into 2026 with ETH leading the way.

BTC.D is likely on its last legs and may ultimately top out in January while ETH and other alts begin to form that bottom over the next few weeks for a move higher into Q1.

It’s tough to say how long this rally will last but there are a number of events on deck this month to confirm this narrative. We have the Fusaka upgrade this week, rate cuts next week, the Clarity Act pending and QE all supposedly in the works.

The market is clearly in extreme fear, very low volume, and oversold levels all at a key time factor. This has all the makings of a significant monthly reversal and any further weakness early in December is a buying opportunity in my view.